Will Hurricane Erin Bring a 600-Mile Rainstorm to the UK? Met Office Clarifies Forecast
As Hurricane Erin churns across the Atlantic, there’s growing curiosity in the UK about whether it could wash away the lingering dry spell. Recently upgraded to a Category 4 storm, Erin is currently targeting the Caribbean and the eastern US coast, whipping up storms and rough seas ahead of its west-to-east trajectory.
Weather models suggest that by Wednesday, August 27, much of the UK might finally see rain. Some forecasts even speculate on a rain band stretching up to 600 miles, with potential rainfall of up to 5 mm per hour in the heaviest downpours, though most areas would likely receive between 0.2 to 3 mm hourly.
But the Met Office urges caution: such long-range predictions are still highly uncertain. Their current outlook describes a slow shift in weather, transitioning from stable, dry conditions to more unsettled patterns as Atlantic systems begin to affect the UK.
Over the upcoming Bank Holiday, high pressure is expected to hold firm, keeping weather fine and dry. However, by mid-next week, that will likely give way to low-pressure systems brought on by Erin’s fading remnants. These systems could slowly edge in from the west, bringing rain and blustery conditions, especially to the north and west, but exactly when and how remains hard to predict with confidence, according to Met Office forecaster Alex Burkill.
This summer has already been one of the UK’s most persistently hot on record. Provisional data places June and July well above normal, and Emily Carlisle, a Met Office scientist, notes the heat’s consistency makes 2025 a contender for the hottest summer since records began in 1884.