AI Predicts Real Madrid as Favourite Over FC Barcelona for the Upcoming El Clásico

A predictive model developed by data-analytics firm Opta has given home side Real Madrid the highest probability of victory in the upcoming showdown against Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. According to the model, Real Madrid carry a 45.6 % chance of winning, while Barcelona are projected at 31 % and a draw sits at 23.6 %.

Behind the Numbers

Opta’s algorithm incorporates a range of data, including recent team form, head-to-head records, advanced player statistics and performance metrics.

The figures suggest that Real Madrid come into the fixture with stronger momentum. Under coach Xabi Alonso, the side has won four of their last five matches. Included in that run: victories over Getafe (1–0), Villarreal (3–1), a 5-0 win in the Champions League and a 4–1 triumph versus Levante.

On the flip side, Barcelona remain inconsistent. The team edged Girona 2–1 with a late goal from Ronald Araújo but earlier suffered heavy losses to Sevilla (4–1) and PSG (2–1).

Key Players & Context

Part of Real Madrid’s statistical edge is credited to the form of Kylian Mbappé, who is described by the article as being “on fire,” with 10 goals and 2 assists in La Liga, and 15 goals across all competitions.

For Barcelona, rising talent Lamine Yamal (2 goals, 4 assists) and Marcus Rashford (3 goals, 5 assists) are flagged as important players, but the team’s overall unpredictability remains a concern.

The Caveat

While the data gives Real Madrid a clear statistical advantage, the article notes that El Clásico has never been just about numbers. The rivalry is loaded with history, pride and emotion, meaning that anything can still happen.