Tracking Tropical Storm Dexter & a Rain-Heavily Start to the Workweek
Monday kicks off with damp and unsettled conditions across the Gulf Coast, all thanks to Tropical Storm Dexter and a stalled weather front , bringing increased cloud cover, ongoing showers, and a real chance for flash flooding in spots.
What’s Happening
Dexter is now the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed late Sunday in the western Atlantic, approximately 255 miles northwest of Bermuda, with sustained winds near 45 mph, moving east‑northeast away from U.S. shores. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. By mid‑week, it’s expected to transition into a post‑tropical system.
The rainfall continued through Monday and Tuesday, thanks to a stationary front hovering across the region. Most communities in NBC 15’s coverage area saw steady shower activity. High temperatures remained in the upper 80s, cooled by rain-cooled air and overcast skies.
Flood & Rainfall Risks
Flash flooding warnings are in effect:
A Level 2 (slight) rainfall risk covers the Florida Panhandle and easternmost Alabama counties.
A Level 1 (marginal) risk zone applies to areas outside those counties.
Even without full tropical development, heavy rainfall remains the main threat this week across the Gulf Coast, including southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Some forecast models predict totals between 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts pushing 10 to 15 inches in some communities.
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Development Update
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has maintained a 40% “medium” chance of this disturbance becoming at least a tropical depression within the next 48 hours and seven days. A slight downgrade to 30% “low” chances was issued by Thursday morning.
While some forecast models once hinted at a brief organization into Tropical Storm Dexter, land interaction and an already disorganized structure have likely limited further intensification.
What to Expect in the Coming Days
Rain chances remain elevated through Tuesday, though coverage should gradually ease by midweek.
Though wind and surge impacts seem unlikely, flash flooding remains the primary concern—especially in areas under Level 2 risk.
Coastal areas should also prepare for dangerous surf and rip currents, even if Dexter stays offshore.