Yankees vs. Blue Jays — July 23 Betting Preview
When & Where:
Wednesday, July 23, 2025 – 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, Toronto.
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees: Max Fried (11–3, 2.43 ERA). Came into the game after leaving his last outing early with a blister but expected to be fully ready.
Toronto Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt (10–4, 3.89 ERA). Comes off a strong performance—6⅓ shutout innings his last time on the mound.
Odds & Moneyline
Yankees: –137 (chance ~58.2%)
Blue Jays: +115 (chance ~46.1%)
Run Line: Yankees favored at –1.5
Total (runs): Avg. set around 8.0–8.5
Betting Insights & Expert Picks
Moneyline: NBC Sports model recommends leaning away from either side; game is too close to call.
NBC Sports
Run Line: Consider Blue Jays at +1.5—model favors Toronto in 61% of simulations.
Total Runs: The over 8.5 is favored, with a 63.1% probability according to statistical models.
Trends & Context
Head-to-Head: Yankees took Tuesday’s game 5–4 in the series decider; it’s the rubber match. The two teams each claimed a series win in their earlier matchups.
NBC Sports
Team Form: Toronto leads recent matchups 5–3. With Bassitt on the mound at home, the Blue Jays display confidence and strong performance.
Pitcher Performance: Max Fried is a contender for Cy Young with a stellar season. Bassitt’s home starts this year often go under the projected total.
Player Props
Aaron Judge: Favored on home run props (+148 odds).
Blue Jays: Guerrero Jr., Springer, Bichette are all in play for hits and extra bases.
Summary
This is a tight pitching duel between top-tier arms.
Expert model leans Blue Jays +1.5 or playing the over 8.5 runs, suggesting a close, entertaining ballgame.
Moneyline remains a toss-up—tread carefully.